Kuta Beach

Kuta Beach

Friday, 10 October 2008

Bad Omen Precedes a Massive Stockmarket Crash

Last night when I was driving back from work I swerved to missed a dead cat on the road. The cat looked intact except for its behind, which was probably run over by tires. There was a pool of blood next to the cat. The thought that maybe this cat was still alive and suffered from excruciating pain made me feel horrible. Parents who do not watch their children can be charged with child abuse, so I don't know why so many cat owners do not watch their cats. Many seem happy to just let them run around on the streets.

When I woke up today and checked the news, I realized that the Australian stock market had tanked. The All Ords had fallen by about 8 per cent to 3900. All up I've probably lost about $8000 or $9000 now. I am thankful that I am still relatively young and have little invested in the stock market. Losing $8000 may seem painful but I have heard about older retirees losing $400,000. I suppose I can be thankful that this depression happened while I was young rather than it building up and hurting me even more when I'm older and have even more money in the market. I am hoping this depression scares the highly-leveraged permabulls away from the market so we can start again with a clean slate from the bottom.

I am tired of all the people saying that now is a good buying opportunity because prices have gone down so much. They were saying this when the market dropped to 5000. They were saying this when the market dropped to 4500. They are still saying it when the market dropped to 3900. I think these people have the gambler's desire to win back losses. I like to use the analogy of the car. Sure, a 50 per cent price reduction in a car seems like a good discount, but just because the price has gone down it may not be a good time to buy. What if the engine in the car has just blown? I fear that the stock market decline may be a rational response to the economic equivalent of a blown engine. The engine that runs our economy (probably debt) is stuffed and now we are entering a phase of deleverage.

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